Robert S. Kaplan, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, is nervously watching the real estate market as he ponders the path of monetary policy. Real estate prices are rising by double digits this year. The typical house in and around the city he calls home sold for $ 306,031 this June, Zillow estimates, up from $ 261,710 a year earlier.
Several of Mr Kaplan’s colleagues have similar concerns. They fear that the housing boom could look like a bubble threatening financial stability. And some fear that the central bank’s big bond purchases may help inflate them.
“It makes me nervous that you have this incipient housing bubble with anecdotal reports backed by a lot of data,” said James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, during a call to reporters on Friday. He believes things are not yet at the crisis level, but he believes the Fed should avoid adding further fuel to the situation. “We got so much trouble with the real estate bubble in the mid-2000s.”
Politicians do not have to look far to recognize rising prices, because living is becoming more expensive almost everywhere. A typical Boise, Idaho home to buy was about $ 469,000 in June, down from $ 335,000 a year ago, based on Zillow estimates of local housing values. A typical Boone, NC home is worth $ 362,000, down from $ 269,000. Zillow’s prices rose 15 percent nationwide over the past year.
Bidding wars frustrate buyers. Agents struggle to find their way in the hectic competition. About half of small bankers said in a recent industry survey that the current state of the real estate market is “a serious risk” to the US economy. Legislators and economic policymakers alike hope for a calming down – especially because the foamy property prices could eventually spill over to the rental prices, which worsens the affordability for low-income families, especially when they come to the end of the eviction moratoria of the pandemic era and in some cases months of rent owed.
Industry experts say the current boom in property prices has arisen from a cocktail of low interest rates, booming demand and supply shortages. In short, it is a situation where many feel acute, with no single guilt for politics and no easy solution.
Fed officials face an especially tricky bill when it comes to housing construction.
Your policies definitely help drive demand. The bond purchases and the low Fed rates make mortgages cheap and inspire people to borrow more and buy higher. But prices aren’t the only factor driving the house price craze. It also stems from demographics, a pandemic-driven desire for space, and very limited supply of new and existing homes for sale – factors that are beyond the control of the central bank.
“Interest rates are a factor that sustains demand, but there really isn’t much we can do on the supply side,” said Fed chairman Jerome H. Powell during the recent congressional hearing.
Withdrawing monetary support, specifically to curb housing construction, is an unattractive prospect, as this would put a brake on the overall economy and make it difficult for the central bank to promote full employment. The Fed’s Monetary Policy Committee on Wednesday voted to keep policies on full support mode, and Mr Powell said at a press conference that followed that the economy is still not meeting the central bank’s employment target.
However, central bank officials are also monitoring financial stability so they are closely watching the rise in prices.
Housing demand was strong in 2018 and 2019, but it really picked up speed early last year after the Fed cut interest rates to near zero and started buying government-backed bonds to calm markets at the start of the pandemic. Mortgage rates fell and mortgage applications skyrocketed.
That was in part when the Fed was struggling to keep the economy afloat: home buying boosts all kinds of spending, for washing machines, curtains, and kiddy pools, so it’s an important lever in boosting the whole economy . Firing up helps revive struggling growth.
These low interest rates came into being just as housing was entering a social sweet spot. Americans born in 1991, the largest group in the country by year of birth, just turned 30. And when millennials – the country’s largest generation – began to think about swapping that fifth-floor walk-up for a home of their own, coronavirus bans were held due.
Suddenly there was more space in the foreground. To some, multiple rounds of government economic reviews that allowed down payments seem more viable. For others, working remotely opened the door to new home markets and opportunities.
Reina and David Pomeroy, 36 and 35, were living in a rented apartment in Santa Clara, California with their children, ages 2 and 7, when the pandemic broke out. Buying at California prices seemed like a pipe dream and they wanted to live close to their family, so they decided to move to the Boulder, Colorado area near Mr. Pomeroy’s brother.
They are closed at the end of July and they will be moving in a few days. Ms. Pomeroy was able to get her job with a remote start-up company, and Mr. Pomeroy hopes that Google, his employer, will allow him to move to his Boulder office. The couple saw between 20 and 30 homes and made – and lost – six offers before finally sealing the deal, above their original budget and $ 200,000 above the $ 995,000 price of their new 5-bedroom.
Her experience underscores the other major problem that is driving prices up: “There isn’t enough inventory for anyone looking,” said Corey Keach, the Redfin agent who helped the Pomeroys find their home.
Daily business briefing
July 30, 2021, 7:43 p.m. ET
The housing supply on the entire residential property market declined after the real estate crisis in the mid-2000s, as construction collapsed in part due to building zone regulations and strict financing standards. Lumber, equipment and labor shortages have emerged since the outbreak of the pandemic, making it difficult for builders to produce units quickly enough.
“The soaring price we’re seeing is the real-time development of the Econ 101,” said Chris Glynn, an economist at Zillow.
There are early signs that the market could get itself under control. New mortgage applications have slowed this year and existing home stocks have increased somewhat. Many housing economists believe that price increases should slow down later this year.
And while the heady moment in America’s real estate sector has some echoes of the lead-up to the 2008 financial crisis – Fed cheap loans allow for ambitious purchases and investors increasingly jump into the market – the differences can be even more critical.
Homeowners like the Pomeroys have been able to afford the homes they buy better than they were in 2005 and 2006. People who take out mortgages today have excellent credit ratings, unlike in the past.
And a big part of the problem lay on Wall Street in the mid-2000s, where banks broke mortgage bundles into complicated financial structures that eventually collapsed. Banks held many of these inventive stocks on their balance sheets, and their implosion caused widespread pain in the financial sector that halted lending – and with it business expansion, recruitment, and spending.
Banks are much better regulated now. But that does not mean that the current boom does not hide any risks to financial stability.
The rise in home prices could also help keep inflation high. The government measures inflation by tracking the cost of what people consume on a regular basis – so it counts housing costs in the form of rents, not home prices.
But an exploding housing market is associated with rising rents: it makes it difficult to jump into a home, which increases the demand for rental apartments and drives up rents. This can be of great importance for inflation data, since the housing costs linked to rents make up about a third of a key figure.
What can the Fed do about it? Officials, including Mr Bullard, have suggested that it might make sense for the Fed to curb its monthly purchases of government bonds and mortgage-backed securities soon and quickly in order to avoid unnecessarily pumping housing from such cheap mortgages.
Discussions about how and when the Fed will stop buying continue, but most economists expect bond buying to slow later this year or early next year. That should drive up mortgage rates and slow down the booming market somewhat.
But borrowing costs are likely to remain low in historical terms in the years to come. Longer-term rates have fallen, although the Fed is considering scaling back bond purchases as investors gloom over global growth prospects. And it is unlikely that the Fed will raise its key rate – its more powerful instrument – from rock bottom anytime soon.
Ideally, officials want the economy to return to full employment before interest rates hike, and most don’t expect that moment to be before 2023. They are unlikely to rush the plan just to cool the living space. Fed officials have argued for decades that bubbles are difficult to spot in real time and that monetary policy is the wrong tool to burst them.
For now, your local housing boom is likely to be left to its own devices – meaning first-time home buyers may end up paying more, but will also find it easier to fund it.
“We were a little more comfortable paying more for the house to keep the interest low,” Pomeroy said, explaining that they could have compromised on the amenities they wanted, but they couldn’t.
“The interest is so low and the money is cheap,” he said. “Why not do it?”