DES MOINES, Iowa — Donald Trump was in Iowa on Monday. Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida made his first visit last week. Nikki Haley and Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina recently took trips. And on Saturday, former Vice President Mike Pence spoke at a foreign policy forum.
Though the Democrats have decided to snub Iowa in 2024, the state has never played such a big role for Republicans in the presidential race. For a Republican, it’s taken on a do-or-die feel — the first real test of Mr. Trump’s strength or vulnerability.
No past president has attempted to reclaim the White House in modern times. A loss, or even a less-than-convincing win, for Mr. Trump in the state caucuses, the opening contest for Republicans early next year, would signal near-fatal weakness for his campaign, according to GOP strategists in and outside the state. For this reason, both his challengers and Mr. Trump himself pay special attention to Iowa.
“I don’t see a formula where Trump loses Iowa, and it doesn’t really hurt him and his chances as a candidate,” said Terry Sullivan, who led Senator Marco Rubio’s 2016 presidential campaign.
Though Mr. Trump easily carried Iowa in the 2016 and 2020 general elections, Republican activists in the state said he was not certain of an election victory in 2024, though he remains the front runner.
Last week, a Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll found that Mr. Trump’s appeal was fading: If he were the 2024 nominee, only 47 percent of Iowa Republicans would definitely back him in the general election. That was a double-digit drop from the 69 percent who said they would definitely support him in 2021.
“For the former president, winning the Iowa election is everything,” said Bob Vander Plaats, an influential leader of the state’s evangelical constituency. “If he loses, it’s ‘game on’ for everyone else to be nominated,” he said. “If he wins the Iowa caucuses, nobody will stop him.”
After Democrats decided that Iowa’s almost-all-white, mostly rural population was unrepresentative and replaced South Carolina as the lead state for their 2024 primary, Republicans are embracing the state’s traditional role as a testing ground.
The Trump campaign has hired veteran state leaders and plans to build a caucus infrastructure in Iowa, signaling its desire for a repeat of 2016, when Mr Trump was shocked to finish second in the caucuses.
Who is running for President in 2024?
Map 1 of 7
The race begins. Four years after a historically large number of candidates ran for president, the field for the 2024 campaign is starting small and likely to be led by the same two men who ran last time: President Biden and Donald Trump. Here’s who’s been in the race so far, and who else might run:
donald trump The former president is running to regain the office he lost in 2020. Though he’s lost some clout in the Republican Party — and faces multiple legal investigations — he retains a large and dedicated base of supporters, and he could be backed in the primary by several challengers, splitting a limited anti-Trump vote .
President Biden. Although Biden has not officially declared his candidacy for a second term and there has been much wrangling among Democrats over whether he should seek re-election given his age, he is widely expected to run. If he does, Biden’s strategy is to frame the race as a competition between a veteran leader and a conspiracy-oriented opposition.
Marianne Williams. The self-help author and former spiritual advisor to Oprah Winfrey is the first Democrat to officially run. At the start of her second presidential campaign, Williamson called Biden a “weak election” and said the party should not fear primaries. Few in Democratic politics take their entry into the race seriously.
At the time, the politically inexperienced reality TV star had believed that large crowds at his rallies would easily lead to waves of caucus-goers. Instead, he lost to Senator Ted Cruz of Texas. Mr. Trump was so angry he flew out of Iowa without thanking his local staff and later baselessly tweeted that Mr. Cruz had won over “cheating” – a preview of his approach after losing re-election in the year 2020
Trump advisers said they do not intend to repeat the mistakes of 2016. “We have a serious political operation in the state of Iowa that is being directed and coordinated by extremely competent professionals who know what they are doing,” said Chris LaCivita, a senior adviser to the Trump campaign. “We’re doing this because, firstly, we’re serious about it and secondly, because we’re about to win it.”
Mr. Trump has hired as his director of state Marshall Moreau, who managed last year’s disgruntled victory for the Republican attorney general of Iowa. He also hired Alex Latcham, a former political director of the Iowa Republican Party, as his early voting director. Mr Latcham witnessed Trump’s bumpy efforts in 2016.
“We have the advantage of learning from that lesson,” Mr Latcham said.
Unlike a primary, a caucus is a low-turnout gathering where voters must brave a typically cold winter night for hours of speaking and voting in their local constituencies.
In 2016, Mr. Trump’s Iowa staffers — including a former “Apprentice” candidate — hired volunteer organizers but didn’t teach them how to reach caucus-goers or provide them with literature to leave at their door. Trump headquarters in the Des Moines suburb were dark many nights when rivals had dozens of volunteers working the phones.
Trump advisers said things would be different this time. They referenced Mr Trump’s first visit to Iowa Monday as a 2024 candidate. The campaign said it was following up the names and emails of thousands of people who signed up to attend and filled the packed 2,400-seat hall in Davenport, Iowa.
How Times reporters cover politics. We rely on our journalists to be independent observers. So while Times employees are allowed to vote, they are not allowed to endorse candidates or campaign for political causes. This includes attending marches or rallies in support of a movement, or donating or raising funds for political candidates or electoral causes.
“The real work of the campaign begins when the President rolls,” Mr Latcham said. “We will continue to engage these people every day through February.”
Mr Trump has also bowed to campaign traditions he once shunned. During his performance in Davenport, he spent 20 minutes answering unscripted questions from the audience. Before the rally, he made an unannounced visit to a Machine Shed restaurant, a popular chain in Iowa.
One of Mr. Trump’s rivals, Ms. Haley, a former United Nations ambassador to the Trump administration, has visited Iowa twice since entering the race last month, and on both visits she has extensively engaged constituents and engaged in the one-on-one interview leaned toward the campaign style that helped her win elections as South Carolina’s governor.
Restaurant drop-ins are a not-so-subtle way Mr. Trump’s 2024 advisors are trying to contrast his likely main rival Mr. DeSantis, who is fighting his reputation for lumbering.
“In the past, the big rallies have worked,” said Mr. LaCivita, Trump’s senior adviser. “It’s definitely a different campaign than 2016. It’s a different time. We will do a mix of retail politics and mass rallies.”
Iowa GOP activists said Mr. Trump maintained a passionate base of support, but that many Republicans are open to an alternative, particularly one they see as more electable.
“I think Trump is preferred, but I wouldn’t say it’s in the bag,” said Steve Scheffler, one of the two members of the Iowa Republican National Committee.
Mr Vander Plaats, the leader of evangelical voters who make up a large Republican bloc in Iowa, said many are open to an alternative to Mr Trump. “My concern, along with many other people’s fears, is that we are concerned about how America has largely decided on Donald Trump,” he said. “I think it’s time to get behind the next leader who can win in 2024.”
Mr Vander Plaats said evangelicals have not forgotten that Mr Trump attributed the broad Republican losses in the 2022 midterm election to candidates focusing too much on the “abortion issue”.
“It showed a character thing of Trump that he blamed the pro-life movement,” Vander Plaats said. “If you’re trying to win the caucuses in Iowa, I wouldn’t put that base under the bus.”
Should Mr. Pence run as widely expected, the Trump campaign could have a problem damaging the former vice president’s appeal among evangelical voters. And Mr. Pence could adopt a strategy of camping in Iowa — spending most of his time in the state to put on a strong caucus show.
At a foreign policy forum in Des Moines on Saturday, Mr. Pence reiterated his view that America must support Ukraine and took issue with Mr. Trump and Mr. DeSantis, both of whom said the Russian invasion was a regional matter of no consequence US concern. “Anyone who thinks that Vladimir Putin will stop if he takes Ukraine has some way to go with what we’re saying in that part of the country,” Mr Pence told Iowans.
The former vice president also on Saturday defended Mr Trump’s call for protests to “take back” the country if he faces the expected arraignment in Manhattan, a call echoing Mr Trump’s incendiary messages ahead of the attack on the US Capitol.
Speaking to reporters, Mr Pence called the possible charges “politically charged” and said people have a right to “express the frustration that they feel” while urging protesters to be peaceful. Mr Pence recently said Mr Trump will be “accountable” for the January 6 attack on history’s Capitol. Asked on Saturday whether the former president should be prosecuted for breaking the law, Mr Pence said: “No one is above the law. I am confident that President Trump can take care of himself.”
The foreign policy forum attracted both Pence supporters and critics. “While he may not be as enthusiastic as some of the other candidates, he’s a very good person,” said David Payer, 70, of Mr Pence. “He has this rock solid foundation to stand on that I can respect and cherish.”
Davis Heywood, a retired roofer with a “Trump 2024” hat, said he was disappointed by what he saw as Mr. Pence’s efforts on Jan. 6, Ukraine and other issues that brought daylight between himself and the former to bring President.
For years, Mr. Pence acted like “being the vice president under President Trump was the best thing of his life,” Mr. Heywood said. “Suddenly he speaks differently than before.”
Maggie Haberman contributed coverage.
www.nytimes.com
.
